Why Obama won.

I have been getting frustrated by the collective musings of Americans who are under the impression that a historic seismic shift transpired on November 4th. Significance of a bi-racial man elected as president is most certainly a notable event, but so is the election of the most liberal left-wing candidate in history.

Although official numbers are still not released we can make some very reasonable assumptions of the turnout (source: wikipedia).

Barack Obama Democratic Illinois 66,117,432 52.6%
John McCain Republican Arizona 57,847,877 46.1%
Total: 123.4M

George W. Bush Republican Texas 62,040,610 50.74%
John F. Kerry Democratic Massachusetts 59,028,444 48.27%
Total: 121M

An increase of 2+ million voters between 2004 and 2008, not the kind of historic significance I was hoping to see. Furthermore what is striking is that Bush obtained almost 5 million more votes four years ago! This is an indication that Republicans sat home. There was probably some cross-over to the Democrat camp, but the increase in African-American and youth vote for Obama offset the angry disenfranchised Republicans.

This story discussing the turnout (Turnout Story) confirms that indeed the Republican turnout decreased and Democrat turnout increased.

Sociologically speaking, this should not be at all surprising. Look at the political and economic landscape.
  1. Bush has lowest approval ratings of any president
  2. America is in a housing and financial crisis
  3. War in Iraq is unpopular
  4. McCain is not a conservative and viewed by most as a liberal Republican.

This is a very difficult combination of obstacles to overcome. In essence no Republican should have won this, but the fact that Republicans sat at home this year is an indication that something went horribly wrong. Perhaps if a candidate inspired conservatives like Obama inspired liberals we would have had a different outcome.

What is historic in reality is the amount of disappointment, mistrust and abandonment of the Republican base more so than the victory of a young, hip black man. Obviously I cannot hide my disappointment with the results, but I also believe that the historic nature that so many people America are celebrating is grossly overblown.


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