What is inflation, how to measure it and are we heading there?

A recent article by Michael Shedlock regarding inflation does the best job so far of breaking down the debate between the deflation and inflation camps.  Using charts and graphs and simple language Shedlock strikes at the core of argument and really makes a compelling case. 

For those not interested in economics or get easily bored reading about monetary supply, credit and other thrilling material - PLEASE READ THIS POST.  Sorry, got ahead of myself.  Look, the material may be boring, but it is absolutely imperative you understand the inner working of the financial system and what this means to you and your family in the next several years. 

Shedlock's site is generally a daily read and you can find the link on my blog roll (on the right side), he is of the Austrian economic school which immediately puts him on the same footing of every person who has correctly predicted the 2008 collapse and writes in simple to understand language.
Given that credit conditions and bank lending have not changed and treasury yields are still near historic lows, fears over run away prices and soaring interest rates are misplaced. You can choose to call this environment "inflation" or "stagflation" if you want. No one can stop you. However, practically speaking, there is far more "stag" than "flation" and the proper prefix is still "de". The stage is set for another market crash.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The 2009 credit boom is coming to an end.

Image
The credit expansion boom of 2009 will eventually go down as yet another period of credit expansion promoted by the Fed that will have lead to another predictable bust.   Today, it will be interesting to examine how the various levels of production are behaving under years and years of artificial interest rate suppression.  It will also be helpful to look at charts and graphs examining the business cycle theory and the impact of time preference as taught by Mises. For starters, those new to the concept - a very brief paraphrasing of the general idea. Under a healthy functioning market people's consumer patterns impact their savings.  More consumption equals less saving and less consumption more saving.  In order to progress the society must save such that it can make investments in machinery, equipment, technology, etc if it hopes to increase the capacity of production.   Sure ,you can harvest 10 coconuts a day, consume them by night and repeat the process...
Read more

What is wrong with this country?

I was browsing the latest IBD poll and it finally struck me. I had this idea brewing for the past few weeks now and this particular poll hit a nerve. What jumped out was the age group and who they are likely voting for. Obama / McCain 18-24: 74% 21% The rest of the age groups are more or less even with ages 65+ leaning more for McCain. Those folks should probably avoid leaning - hazardous to their health. Now, if you are a member of this group and are part of the 74% you are probably feeling good about yourself. If you are in the 21% then you are probably used to feeling desperate and angry that your peers ostracize you as if you were the next coming of the bubonic plague. But this number is very telling. Showing to us that a large group of freshly minted liberals, on average still in college, is in a very good position to influence these elections. Enthralled by the concept of "what they want the world to be" and their utopian ideals they hammer their message to anyone willi...
Read more

Cult of Personality Watch: Obama day

I suspect I might have to make a regular piece about this, given the nature of this presidency. Today's CoP moment, brought to you by http://cjonline.com/stories/110908/loc_353922770.shtml Planning under way for Obama holiday The Capital-Journal Published Sunday, November 09, 2008 Plans are being made to promote a national holiday for Barack Obama, who will become the nation's 44th president when he takes the oath of office Jan. 20. "Yes We Can" planning rallies will be at 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. every Tuesday at the downtown McDonald's restaurant, 1100 Kansas Ave., until Jan. 13. The goals are to secure a national holiday in Obama's honor, to organize celebrations around his inauguration and to celebrate the 200th birthday of President Abraham Lincoln, who was born on Feb. 12 1809. At 7:30 a.m. on Inauguration Day, Obama Cake will be served at the downtown McDonald's, and a celebration is scheduled for 8 p.m. to midnight Jan. 20 at the Ramada Hotel and Conventi...
Read more