Prediction for Massachusetts special election for Tuesday January 19th.

Tomorrow morning I will get up and cast my vote, I will cast it proudly, but sadly knowing it will once again fall on deaf ears.  I have of course made it no secret that my support goes to the individual that best suits this nation at the current juncture.  To me it never mattered whether my candidate could win because my selection was made based on the issues, not statistical probabilities.  In America looms a great crisis, a crisis of monumental proportions and yet we continue to steadily march to the same beat that brought us here in the first place.  I have done my part at this moment and have attempted to educate and steer those willing to listen, but money speaks and this is the nature of our political process.  So my prediction is as follows.

Scott Brown (R): 52%
Martha Coakley (D): 45%
Joe L. Kennedy (I): 3%

This is based on two factors.  Firstly the internal polls are all converging on a momentum rush that will be difficult to stop and Coakley's last minute attack ads seem to have misfired badly.  Secondly and more importantly the mood on the ground.  From the people I have spoken with and the general level of responses appear to be very similar to the kind of rhetoric we heard in 2008 for Obama.  Most of the descriptions and reasons for voting among the Republican side consist of personal and subjective pleasantries.  People find Brown to be smart, intelligent, thoughtful, calm, articulate and as a symbol of change!  On the other hand Coakley's supporters are doing so primarily out of party loyalty while acknowledging their dissatisfaction with their candidate of choice.

When people ignore the issues and support a candidate because of an attractive personal element or as symbolic opposition this translates into votes.  Obama sailed in on his oratory, intelligence, charm, skin color and as a symbol of opposition to Bush.  Brown will sail in on his charm, oratory, intelligence and as a symbol of opposition to Obama(Care).  Brown represents the 41st vote to filibuster ObamaCare something he repeatedly promised to do.  Of course the irony is that ObamaCare will move to it's destined location regardless of Brown!  It may very well die without a vote at all or they may push it through as is (assuming Pelosi concedes), but either way Brown's role will not be significant.  All these factors coalescing together have formed an incredible surge in momentum and are now on the cusp of handing the Democrats a most bitter upset. By tomorrow evening the torch of the Kennedy dynasty that has kept the liberal fire going for over 60 years will finally go dark.

Majority of Americans will be celebrating a great victory tomorrow and many will believe that a new era is upon us.  Of course many believed the same just over a year ago when Obama assumed the White House.  I wrote to you then that no good change would come and so far this has been the case and I write to you now that Brown's election is meaningless.  Brown represents the same old tired big spending, smooth talking liberal Republicans that have dominated Washington DC for decades and if you expect an old dog to learn new tricks, then you are gullible and misguided.

It will be fun to see Obama take his third loss and it will be fun to see what the Democrats have up their sleeves for ObamaCare, but that is all the fun I will be having.  At least some of us can sleep easy knowing we voted for the only candidate who promised real change, Joe Kennedy.