Arkady's Thoughts

So much for the new age of transparency and change and while I am not going to blame Obama for this AIG mess - it's happening on his watch and he is the big boss. It has now become rather clear that Geithner and Dodd who once claimed they knew nothing about AIG bonus payouts are coming clean. Looks like Dodd's amendment in the massive 787 billion stimulus bill contained language that opened the door for these bonuses to be paid out and since Geithner is writing the check he is responsible. Dodd's language specifically protected contracts before a certain date and it seems incredibly ironic and might I say stupid that a bill was passed today to tax the living hell out of these very same bonuses they allowed in the first place! The entire concept of taxing 90% of these bonuses is ludicrous at it's face and today they passed legislation that is allowing just that. While AIG's executives most certainly do NOT deserve bonuses and frankly should be ashamed for ta...

The answer to this question on liberal websites is considered common knowledge; of course Red states get more federal aid and of course blue states fund the rest of America. Let's look at the stimulus package and where the money is going to see if this piece of gospel lives up to it's expectations. I am using this breakdown, downloadable here (state by state from Center on Budget and Policy Priorities); The stimulus bill allocates $39.5 Billion for education and $8.8 billion for other services. There is also apparently another $5 billion for incentive grants, but this particular sum is not broken down yet. So we will use the $48.3 billion figure. All in all, these funds will be used to fund everything the states require including paying out all non-federal aid. Some of the biggest recipients of funding are as follows: (First number is from the education block grant, second number is the all purpose block grant) Note: Blue States and Red States are being defined by how each sta...

Based on a campaign promise by Obama his administration is now utilizing technology to provide bleeding edge transparency to government in ways unseen before. Even before the stimulus bill found support in Congress, one of the very first provisions in the bill spoke about Recovery.gov as a means to provide transparency to the American public. Aim here is to let the people know where exactly our hard earned money is going and even give us a chance to participate, or in this case write about emotional stories of how someone else's money changed our lives. Given that a bill of this size passed through Congress in truly record speed, one would expect the website to be fully functioning and full of lip smacking goodness. Instead, the user is greeted with a bar chart that breaks down the money distribution in several sections. I was intrigued by the staggering figure of 288B for 'tax relief' considering $400 checks to those making less than 75k and an AMT patch cannot possibly a...

We have a housing crisis in this country, but the crisis is not rising foreclosure rates and rundown neighborhoods. After all, those elements have existed before and they are a natural part of the real estate market's ebb and flow. There is another crisis unfolding, a crisis that the media will not report and the politicians will not acknowledge. War has been declared on every single American who in the past several years did all the right things and made all the correct decisions. Somehow it has been established that those suffering the impending housing doom are victims of greedy bankers and exploitative free marketeers unleashed upon America due to 'deregulation'. It has been estimated that those suffering foreclosures number somewhere between 4 and 6 million people. For perspective, there are as many Facebook fans of Barack Obama. The remainder 295 million Americans due to sheer cunning shrewdness and genius escaped the prying clutches of money grubbing bankers and for...

People interested in the details of this package, the final number of 787 of which appears to be the final and set number can examine the following.  Since there is hardly any point in raving or ranting about the inevitable package I am instead providing resources for people that are interested in learning more information about the biggest spending bill in America's history. My work: I read the bill in parts and summed up important details here.   However some items and number of billions allocated may have changed. Official website:   Recovery.gov according to the bill is the official website that will provide transparency and clarity to us all.  Other websites: National Review has a brief list in no particular order that they find objectionable/interesting. ProPublica :  This is probably the most comprehensive list, but it lacks any details/wording of allocation or reasoning, I find this to be of limited use, but gives you a sense of who the big recipients are.  Actual Bill: F...

UPDATE:  Senate passes the bill 60-38 and it will be signed next week.  After all the work and the passionate speeches, websites, facebook groups, awareness and general broo - haha this boondoggle finally clears the finish line.  Not much more we can do here, but prepare for the next spending project that is expected to come down the pipe shortly, the Omnibus. Yet another impressive showing, albeit not as powerful as last time by the House republicans standing united against the "revised" stimulus. I say " revised" in jest, as there is not much difference in this bill from a fundamental standpoint. A bill that is entirely tailored to the spending interests of liberal groups, laughable tax incentives and senseless research projects cannot be supported by fiscally minded individuals. Even if the number is down from 819 to 787 B-b-b-billion. There is just one difference this time, fewer Democrats stood with the GOP this time. Where as last time 11 brave souls bro...

Congressional committee talks have resulted in what appears to be a deal reached between the two legislative bodies. The price tags keeps fluctuating between 780B and 834B and as of now it seems like it's on the lower end of the spectrum. Differences that amount to 5% of the total package are not serious enough to sway one's opinion, however what the actual bill contains seems to be different than the original House passed bill. Because the actual provisions are still being ironed out and the possibilities of additional amendments being added still exists I will refrain from going over the recently added items. Fundamentally the original problem with the bill still remains, there is a significant lack of anything really stimulative. Even if we account for the expanded shovel ready money from 30 to 45+ billion, the impact is negligible. Tax cuts are still not existent and and as previously highlighted , tax rebates and an AMT patch are nothing new. In fact the rebate checks wil...

Due to yesterday's cloture today's vote was a mere formality, however the fight is not quite over. Due to the heavy modifications of the bill, a next step involves the bill moving to a conference committee. There they will have to once again compromise and after reaching a happy medium, this well done slightly salted slab of pork is moving to Obama for digestion. Like me, you are probably somewhat exasperated and maybe called and wrote to many Senators this past week to no avail. But the fight is not over yet. What can you do!? Americans for Prosperity have setup a nostimulus website where you can sign a petition. Check out the website and when you are ready, in case you need further incentives sign the petition ! Remember, there are plenty of resources on the web available that dissect this stimulus bill blast ing giant holes in both it's original purpose and the rhetoric behind why America should support this pork sandwich. Send material to your liberal friends and urg...

There is no single better indicator of future economic projections than the stock market. Traditionally the market always signaled what direction the economy is heading by a good six to nine months. The market is talking to us and if we listen, the following has been said since late 2008. The market did not like Barack Obama. Ever since the reality of him becoming president set in, the market shaved off a tremendous amount of value. Obviously September and October are traditionally bad months and that contributed to the sell-off, but if there was one mandate made in November, it was done by investors and traders. The market continued to dislike Barack Obama with the worst post-election week sell-off in American history. The market did not like the TARP. Since TARP most of the companies involved and the precarious $ BKX (Banking index) are now lower than they were when TARP was announced. The market does not like the stimulus bill nor does it like TARP2. Today the market shaved off clo...

All the hype today was centered around Obama's first press conference and whether or not he will be able to sell the need for a stimulus package. Unfortunately for Obama the level of ingenuity apparently tapered off as his campaign concluded. Recycling the same rhetoric over and over capitalizing on America's willingness to give him the benefit of the doubt is starting to wear a bit thin. Bush may be gone, but the constant reminder of his "failed policies" continues to ring on and begs the question, what is the statute of limitations on blaming the previous administration? Ironically of course, Obama is trying to sell America on the New Deal Part 2. It matters not that the first New Deal has now proven to be a disaster and may be largely responsible for prolonging the Great Depression. It matters not that FDR used Herbert Hoover (an interventionist much like Bush) as a scapegoat for years and years, and certainly it matters not that virtually every economist of that ...

If the rumors of Teddy Kennedy's forced retrieval prove to be true, Senate can be voting for cloture tonight. This would in effect cease debate and shutdown the filibuster in the Senate, allowing the bill to safely pass and terrorize our economy for the next decade. I find Kennedy's arrival to be in poor taste and indicative that the bill does not have popularity or support among the senators, let alone the American public. Stooping to such extreme measures over a potential expenditure of 1 trillion dollars is the lowest of the low and pure politics. Stay tuned, I will be making updates in this post. 5:50 - Cloture passes with 61 votes, final vote will occur tomorrow morning. It's all over folks, nothing more to see here, the Collins/Nelson modified bill (7B more than the House) will be the bill put forth upon America. It was fun while it lasted. 4:50 - Senator Coburn warns of a legacy that would be left by this bill and suggests that each taxpayer will assume a massive ...

This is from the Congressional Budget Office , specifically their macro projections for the next 10 years. The PDF can be downloaded here . Below is what really matters though. This is the 3rd page of the document and shows several key factors from 2007 to 2010. Specifically observe that by 2010 Revenues are projected to increase. GDP also jumps after completely flat lining from 2008-2009 and more importantly deficit dramatically drops. Do yourself a favor and peruse the 9 page document. Given the evidence, what one should immediately inquire is, what the hell is going on in congress. Why, given the bi-partisan organization (the CBO ) that both parties implicitly trust, they are continuing to push this stimulus package on Americans? Why is Obama purposely fear mongering and suggesting that a catastrophe looms, when the best forecasters disagree. Every American should be extremely concerned as to why our future is being mortgaged for political gains. With over 100s of billions directe...

We have been given some time to mobilize our efforts and exert additional pressure in stopping the Obama/ Pelosi "stimulus" package. With the tentative deal still on shaky grounds, Harry Reid has pushed the vote to Monday. There is sufficient evidence that Collins can " un -break" ranks and refuse to vote if the Democrat amendments make the bill top heavy. The tentative deal is already larger than the one she agreed to. This is perfect considering this senate term might be her last. However, Arlen Specter is planning to run again in 2010. This is a perfect opportunity to voice your opinion and without sounding like a mafiozo soldier warn him that it might be in his best interest to stick with the GOP this time around. We can forgive him Geithner , SCHIP and everything else he sold conservatives down the river on. Olympia Snowe's next run is not for many years and she is therefore not possible to directly pressure, but if Collins and Specter can be per...

Seems like a simple question, yet the answer differs depending on the source. Firstly, we must at least agree on a definition of tax cuts before we answer the question of what is contained within Spendulus . A tax cut by definition is a payroll reduction where a taxpayer pays less per a certain bracket. It can last for a number of years and could expire, but only this particular arrangement can be classified as a tax cut. The stimulus bill currently being debated in the Senate does not contain tax cuts according to the definition. Instead there are two items that can be best described as tax relief. AMT Tax Patch: This patch is to prevent the Alternative Minimum Tax from hitting the middle class. Congress has been patching the AMT for the past 10 years, because it unfairly targets the middle class, not it's original intention. Because this patch has been a commonplace piece of legislation for the past 10 years does not improve this bill's tax relief capability. Tax cred...

Yesterday the Senate was debating the merits of the "bi-partisan" efforts after which they voted on several amendments. One that should make every American's blood boil is an amendment proposed to by John Vitter yesterday. It was a very simple amendment, just strip out 4.1 Billion to ACORN. After all, an organization that has so clearly chosen a partisan effort, is being investigated and prosecuted in over 10 states and is by all definition a radical left outfit should NOT be subsidized by taxpayer money. In fact, it is amazing that there is even any discussion here what so ever. The amendment was struck down 51 to 45 . Breakdown of vote: Republicans, all voted AYE. The following Democrats also voted AYE. Sen. Max Baucus [D, MT] Sen. Evan Bayh [D, IN] Sen. Robert Byrd [D, WV] Sen. Kay Hagan [D, NC] Sen. Ben Nelson [D, NE] Sen. Jon Tester [D, MT] (send them a nice note) The rest of the 49 traitors, err, Democrats voted NAY. Note: For those confused by the number. There...

I will be providing regular updates on tonight's stimulus bill discussions, given the fact that this monstrosity might be voted on tonight. UPDATE: Pretty clear that this will not be voted on tonight, Reid has pushed for a special weekend session. Amendments incoming, stay tuned. Saturday 2:00pm - Vote officially pushed off until Monday, both sides will debate the bill for several hours. Friday 11:26 - Signing out folks, few random amendments left, will check in tomorrow. Good night! 11:25 - Harry Reid realizes that they will not finish by 12 and is proposing to meet tomorrow to debate the merits of the bill. 11:22 - Results incoming, all Republicans voting AYE. Most Democrats voting NAY. I cannot believe how many Democrats are handing over 4.1 Billion of taxpayer money to ACORN. Why does this have to be a partisan issue? ACORN is a group that destabilizes our voting process and compromises our country's law and order. They were intimately involved in the sub-prime scandal and...